Cheltenham November Meeting - Stephen Welch's Betting Tips & Insights

Stephen Welch / 1:50 PM GMT • 13th November, 2025

10 minutes

Here at Winning Post, our resident horse racing expert Stephen Welch has picked out some of his best bets over the next three days.

The countdown to next year's Cheltenham Festival gathers pace this weekend as we look forward to the three-day November meeting. We get underway on Friday with Countryside Day which includes a couple of Grade 2 contests including the Shloer Chase and Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle. Saturday is known as Super Saturday and features the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Arkle Challenge Trophy Trial. We round off the weekend with Carnival Sunday. where there are a number of competitive handicaps to look forward to including the Oddschecker Handicap Chase and the Unibet Greenwood Handicap Hurdle.

It’s the first real chance of the new jumps season to assess returning stars, weigh up exciting newcomers and begin shaping those early Festival shortlists and potential antepost picks. Here at Winning Post, our resident horse racing expert Stephen Welch has picked out some of his best bets over the next three days.

Friday 14th November (Countryside Day)

1:10 Cheltenham

Lycetts Insurance Brokers Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle

KAP VERT - 7/1

KAP VERT who shaped like a winner-in-waiting on return at Fontwell and looks primed to go one better now stepping back up in trip. An impressive novice hurdle winner last season, he wasn’t disgraced in spring handicaps and returned from six months off with a clear-running second over 2m3f on good to soft, travelling sweetly and finding plenty. He’s up just 2lbs for that and this more galloping 2m5f should suit..

Phillip Hobbs & Johnson White tend to bring these second-season hurdlers along patiently and this big-field, strongly run qualifier should play to his strengths. Freddie Keighley takes off a handy 3lbs, effectively easing the rise and leaving Kap Vert very fairly treated against largely exposed rivals. Ground conditions look ideal and there’s every chance he can settle, creep into it and assert up the hill.

There are dangers with Walkadina unexposed up in trip, Lucky Manifest arrives on a roll and A Pai De Nom has scope on handicap debut. But Kap Vert has the blend of race fitness, mark and setup you want for this test. Confident vote for Kap Vert to land this and kick on through the winter.

1:45 Cheltenham

Unibet Middle Distance Veterans’ Chase

LORD BADDESLEY - 6/1

This veterans’ handicap lacks a standout and several arrive with questions to answer, but LORD BADDESLEY appeals most after an authoritative comeback win at Newbury eight days ago. He travelled strongly, jumped accurately and put the race to bed in a matter of strides after a breathing operation, suggesting he is very much back in the groove. A 7lbs penalty is fair, he’s effectively running off his future mark and the Anthony Honeyball yard remain in good form. Returning to a bigger field and a stronger pace should suit him even better.

Fugitif is dangerously handicapped if rediscovering his 2023 December Gold Cup form, especially with Charlie Maggs removing a handy 5lbs, but his losing run is lengthy and he often flatters late rather than finding off the bridle. Gunsight Ridge also has the ability to figure, though the Olly Murphy yard’s poor Cheltenham chase record tempers enthusiasm. Eldorado Allen and Numitor are respected course winners but both have become inconsistent, while Mister Coffey remains winless over fences despite multiple chances.

2:55 Cheltenham

Shloer Chase

L’EAU DU SUD - 3/1

Jonbon’s CV is impossible to knock on the whole, 23 career starts, never out of the first two and back-to-back wins in this very race but there are just enough niggles to take him on at cramped odds. Four of his five defeats have come at Cheltenham, he was turned over when odds-on in the Celebration Chase at Sandown last time out and he returns from a wind operation with the spring’s two below-par efforts still fresh in the memory. He can obviously win, but he doesn’t have to at the price.

L’EAU DU SUD looks the most credible alternative and a perfectly fair bet. He was a high-class novice last season, racking up a Graded hat-trick that included an impressive C&D success at the November meeting before a perfectly solid fourth in the Arkle. He’s proven around Cheltenham, handles all ground, receives 3lbs from Jonbon and as a second-season chaser from a red-hot Skelton yard, has every right to improve again now stepping into open company.

Libberty Hunter is respected as a strong-travelling course specialist and could easily pick up the pieces if the big two underperform, while Matata and Brookie add depth. But in terms of value and profile, L’EAU DU SUD is preferred to a potential odds-on Jonbon and gets the vote to upset the champion.

Saturday 15th November (Super Saturday)

1:10 Cheltenham

Debenhams Amateur Riders’ Handicap Chase

HERAKLES WESTWOOD - 11/2

Herakles Westwood looked a proper improver over fences last season and this represents a notable drop in grade after a series of runs in much stronger company. He chased home In D’Or on chase debut at Taunton, a horse who went on to win at Ascot and run well in a deep Sandown handicap, before racking up a double himself at Newbury and Windsor, the latter form boosted by the runner-up scoring next time.

He then held his own in competitive novices at Newbury, the Cheltenham Festival and Punchestown, which makes this Class 3 amateur riders’ event look a fair bit easier on balance, especially with top weight an exposed 13-year-old and the rest of the field clustered in the 120s. The booking of top Irish amateur Finian Maguire is a big plus in this sphere, the ground should be fine and there still looks more improvement to come from an eight-year-old with relatively few miles on the clock.

Aurea Fortuna and Kelce make obvious shortlist material on recent efforts, but Herakles Westwood brings a touch of higher-level form to the table and can make that class edge count.

2:20 Cheltenham

Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase

CONYERS HILL - 14/1

Jagwar and last year’s winner Il Ridoto head the market on the back of strong Festival and course form, while Panic Attack has clearly been lined up for this, but conditions might just tilt things towards a softer-ground operator and CONYERS HILL looks a lively each-way alternative at the prices.

Paul Nolan’s gelding has always shaped like a strong-traveller who wants an emphasis on stamina. He landed soft/heavy-ground hurdles at Cork and Clonmel, ran a cracker in a Listed handicap at Fairyhouse, then got his reward over fences in a Down Royal novice in January. His sixth in the Grand Annual here reads well, staying on from off the pace over two miles and he backed that up when a fast-finishing second in a Listed novice at Fairyhouse, again doing best of those ridden patiently.

He reappeared at Limerick over this sort of trip and again travelled like the best horse for much of the race, just not finding a huge amount off the bridle late on. That has been a bit of a trait, but one that can be masked if Sean O’Keeffe can deliver him as late as possible off what should be a strong pace. With valuable course experience in the book, a handy racing weight and underfoot conditions in his favour, he looks the type to creep into this from the back and outrun his odds.

3:30 Cheltenham

Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle

ROYAL INFANTRY - 9/2

Chepstow’s Silver Trophy has become a tried-and-tested springboard for this race and ROYAL INFANTRY looks primed to keep that trend rolling. He was a big eye-catcher there on his reappearance, travelling smoothly from the rear before staying on strongly to finish a close fourth, beaten just four lengths. That form has already worked out superbly, the runner-up has bolted up in a Listed mares’ chase, the fourth won a Class 2 handicap at Kempton with plenty in hand and the sixth went down narrowly in the Grade 2 West Yorkshire Hurdle, therefore a 2lbs ease in the weights looks very fair.

Top weight shouldn’t faze him. Dan Skelton has always held him in high regard, pitching him into good company; he ran in the 2024 Champion Bumper, finished fifth in the Top Novices’ at Aintree and chased home a Willie Mullins hotpot in a Listed 3m novice at Perth. This intermediate trip on a galloping track looks ideal now and his record second time out after a break (1112) suggests he’ll step forward again with that Chepstow spin under his belt. With a bit of ease in the ground very much in his favour, he can stamp his class on this handicap.

Sunday 16th November (Carnival Sunday)

13:15 Cheltenham

mallardjewellers.com Maiden Hurdle

AMBIENTE FRIENDLY - 4/1

Ambiente Friendly is a fascinating recruit to hurdles and it is hard to ignore his raw engine in a race of this nature. A runaway winner of the Lingfield Derby Trial and runner-up in the 2024 Derby, he showed a level of ability on the Flat that very few in this line-up could dream of. His 2025 campaign has been underwhelming, but connections have not been shy in admitting that a change of discipline is very much about rekindling his enthusiasm and the reports about his schooling have been positive. If he settles in the early stages and jumps with any fluency, his class alone could carry him a long way on soft ground that he has handled before.

Act Of Innocence brings solid bumper form and represents a top yard. Gaelic Pride has already shown he can handle novice hurdles and sets a fair standard after his Fontwell second. Hold The Serve is another unknown quantity with point-to-point experience and could be lively in the market. However, they all look more ‘good’ rather than ‘exceptional’ on paper and none possess anything like Ambiente Friendly’s peak Flat rating. With Sam Twiston-Davies booked and conditions unlikely to be extreme, this looks a sensible spot to roll the dice.

2:20 Cheltenham

Hine Solicitors Talking Sense Handicap Chase

GLENGOULY - 11/2

Glengouly shaped like a horse firmly on the way back when third at Aintree last week and he looks worth chancing to build on that in a race that isn’t overloaded with unexposed types. A one-time useful chaser for Willie Mullins, he had completely lost his way since leaving Closutton, but the application of first-time headgear and a drop back to two miles saw him travel and jump with much more purpose on Merseyside. He moved through that race like the best horse at the weights, only edged out late by a smart hurdler on chase debut and another progressive sort.

That was his first go at the minimum trip since winning a Leopardstown novice hurdle back in 2022 and his first serious crack over fences at around two miles since scoring over 2m2f at Thurles. His Irish campaign was spent largely in deeper handicaps and over longer distances, including three-mile assignments on testing ground and they clearly once felt he had the stamina for a National-type campaign. The switch of yard, a return to sharper trips and a bit of help from the headgear all suggest connections have found the key to him again and he remains very well treated judged on his peak Irish mark.

There are obvious dangers. Triple Trade returns to the scene of his 2023 success and lurks on a workable mark if Joe Tizzard has him tuned up. Cabhfuilfungi was progressive over fences last season and goes well fresh, while Torneo has already shown he can mix it in decent two-mile handicaps and should be winning again this term. Ballybreeze arrives on a hat-trick and represents a yard that does well with chasers, but he may need another step forward from his current mark.