PADDY POWER GOLD CUP HANDICAP CHASE - PREVIEW & TIPS
2:20 CHELTENHAM
PADDY POWER GOLD CUP HANDICAP CHASE (IN MEMORY OF EDWARD O'GRADY) (PREMIER HANDICAP) (GBB RACE)
Vincenzo is tipped to land Cheltenham’s Autumn showpiece, with Jagwar and Il Ridoto leading the opposition.
PADDY POWER GOLD CUP - PREVIEW
The Paddy Power Gold Cup is one of Cheltenham’s great early-season fixtures, a 2m4½f Premier Handicap over sixteen fences on the Old Course that has been shaping the chasing landscape since 1960. Traditionally run in mid-November, it often identifies horses capable of mixing it in Grade 1 company later in the year, with past winners including Imperial Commander, Exotic Dancer, Our Vic, Al Ferof, Ga Law, Stage Star and last year’s hero Il Ridoto.
Handicapping nous and course craft are usually as important as raw ability. Cheltenham experience is a major trend, the vast majority of recent winners had run here several times and many were already course winners while ages six to nine dominate. Second-season chasers and Festival form lines are particularly potent; horses coming from the Plate, the Grand Annual or high-class spring handicaps repeatedly reappear on this roll of honour.
Historically, the race has been a happy hunting ground for the big British yards. Martin Pipe’s Pond House team made the race their own in the 1990s and early 2000s with the likes of Cyfor Malta, Lady Cricket, Celestial Gold and Our Vic, while more recently Paul Nicholls has taken over as the modern specialist, winning four of the last dozen renewals including the last two with Stage Star and Il Ridoto.
This year’s renewal is worth £91,120 to the winner and has attracted a deep field of 15, mixing a Festival Plate winner on the up (Jagwar), a defending champion (Il Ridoto), progressive Irish handicappers (Thecompanysergeant, Coming Up Easy, Conyers Hill) and an unexposed British improver in Vincenzo, who looks ready to step into this grade. On soft ground (good to soft in places), the ability to travel smoothly, jump economically and see out every yard of the trip up the hill will prove decisive and it’s in that blend of qualities that Vincenzo just edges the vote.
PADDY POWER GOLD CUP - RUNNER BY RUNNER GUIDE
THE OTHER MOZZIE - 33/1
A likeable Irish chaser who enjoyed a productive campaign last term, winning three times and signing off with a tidy success in the Scotty Brand Chase at Ayr over 2m. He ran creditably in a hot Festival novices’ handicap in March, but that effort still leaves him a few pounds shy of the very top of this division and he now steps back up in trip in a much deeper race. Fresh form is a plus, yet on overall profile he looks set to be outclassed if the principals show their form.
BAD - 18/1
Talented but not straightforward, Bad turned a corner when blinkers were applied, winning back-to-back Kempton handicaps last season and returning with a career-best success there in October without the headgear. He’s clearly in good form and a mark of 145 is workable at his best, but his strongest form is on flatter tracks and he now faces a big-field, strongly-run handicap around Cheltenham on soft ground. Capable of running respectably if things fall his way, but others appeal more as likely winners at this level.
THECOMPANYSERGEANT - 10/1
Ran a stormer in the Festival Plate, chasing home Jagwar and emerging with the promise of more to come at this trip. He’s 5lbs better off with that rival here and shaped as though still ahead of his mark in both the Galway Plate and Kerry National, where his stamina and jumping under maximum pressure just began to fray late on over extended distances. Dropping back to 2m4f on soft looks a plus and he has the tactical speed for a race like this. A strong each-way contender, though he may still find one or two better treated at the weights.
RISKINTHEGROUND - 28/1
Ultra-genuine and prolific last term, winning six times including over this C&D in the Silver Trophy in April. He returned with a solid intermediate chase win at Newton Abbot and clearly retains his enthusiasm. However, he now finds himself on a career-high mark and while his attitude is a huge asset, this represents a sharper, more competitive test than he’s usually faced. Could give his running and plug on into mid-division, but it’s hard to see him landing the major blow required to win a Paddy Power Gold Cup.
IL RIDOTO - 11/2
Last year’s Paddy Power Gold Cup winner, scoring from a similar mark and shaping as if there was even a bit more up his sleeve. He spent the rest of the season running well in deeper handicaps without quite getting back on the scoresheet, but made a very pleasing return when second at Chepstow last month. Back at his favourite track, cheekpieces likely returning and only 1lb higher than last year, he has an obvious, rock-solid chance of a repeat. A big danger and highly likely to be on the premises once again.
COMING UP EASY - 9/1
Transformed by aggressive tactics over fences, rattling off a hat-trick, culminating in a dominant win in a Listed handicap at Killarney over 2m5f. He jumps boldly, travels strongly and looks the type to be very dangerous if allowed his own way on the front end. The flip side is a 10lbs higher mark in a deeper, more tactical race around Cheltenham and he’s yet to prove himself around this track. Still low mileage as a chaser and entitled to respect, but more of an interesting place player than a standout win bet in this field.
VINCENZO - 5/1
A chaser going firmly the right way for Sam Thomas, Vincenzo quickly proved himself better over fences than hurdles last term, winning at Windsor and Sandown and signing off with an excellent second in the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury over 2m4f. In that Newbury run, he travelled strongly, jumped fluently and was only run down late by an inspired winner, with a smart yardstick back in third. Still relatively unexposed at this trip, he fits the ideal age and profile for this race, looks well enough treated off 137(with a useful 3lbs claim) and should relish soft ground given how strongly he finishes his races. With the Thomas yard in excellent form and this clearly a long-term target, he looks primed to step into the big time. A progressive second-season chaser with a big-race win in him, he’s taken to land it.
THEATRE NATIVE - 18/1
A good mare who impressed when jumping and galloping her rivals into submission in a mares’ handicap over this C&D in April. She’s since run respectably when third at Limerick and the booking of Sean Bowen catches the eye. However, she’s now 10lbs higher than for that Cheltenham win and steps into one of the most competitive handicaps of the season. Her attitude and course form count for plenty, but she may just find a few of these too classy off their current marks. Place possibilities if everything drops right.
PANIC ATTACK - 11/2
Smart mare who made an immediate impact for the Skelton yard over fences when bolting up at Windsor in January, travelling like a well-handicapped horse and putting the race to bed with ease. She backed that up with a strong second over hurdles at Warwick and has reportedly had this race on the agenda for some time. She returns from a break, but Dan Skelton is adept at producing one cherry-ripe for a target and her blend of pace and stamina is well suited to 2m4f on soft around here. Now 10lbs higher and into much more demanding company, she’ll need to step forward again, but it would be no surprise to see her shaping like a major threat approaching the last. More one for the short-list than the main selection.
CONYERS HILL - 11/1
A steady improver over fences whose form has a quietly solid look. He has winning soft/heavy-ground hurdles form in Ireland and ran a cracking race in the Grand Annual over two miles here in March, staying on strongly up the hill as though this longer trip would suit. His return at Limerick over 2m3f, when second after being given plenty to do, suggested he’s come back in good order and still has a race of this nature in him. The niggle is his tendency to travel strongly without finding masses off the bridle and he now tackles a deeper race off a mark that demands another step forward. With a smooth passage and a late challenge, he’s a very plausible each-way alternative, but more likely to hit the frame than land the big prize unless everything falls into place.
ES PERFECTO - 18/1
Lightly raced for a ten-year-old chaser, Es Perfecto enjoyed a productive season last term, winning at Sandown over this trip and finishing an excellent fifth in the Jack Richards novices’ handicap at the Cheltenham Festival, only giving way late up the hill. He goes well fresh and his prominent style can be an asset in this race. However, the handicapper appears to have him about where he wants him now and while he’s admirably honest, others younger and less exposed look more likely to find the necessary improvement. Not one to dismiss completely for the places, but he’s more of a solid yardstick than a likely winner at this stage of his career.
HOE JOLY SMOKE - 13/2
Showed significant improvement when switched to fences last term, winning twice at Sandown over staying trips. His reappearance here over 3m1f was full of promise, he travelled like the winner for a long way before fading into third late on, suggesting that dropping back to 2m4f could be ideal. From the bottom of the weights with a strong-travelling style, he’s the type who could loom up looking dangerous turning in. The question is whether this sharper, more tactical test at a slightly shorter trip blunts his main asset, his stamina, when the tempo really lifts from two out. Very much on the each-way radar, but he may find one or two too sharp in the closing stages.
HUNTER LEGEND - 8/1
Prolific for Venetia Williams since going chasing, landing five wins from his last eight starts, including a dominant success at Bangor when last seen. That came in a small-field Class 4 and this represents a significant step up in grade and depth off a much higher mark. That said, he’s the type who could still be ahead of the handicapper, travels strongly, jumps well and loves a test in soft ground. The big unknown is how he’ll cope with a large field and the hustle and bustle of a Paddy Power Gold Cup, something his profile hasn’t yet answered. Not without interest as a lurking improver, but this is a sizeable leap and we’ll treat him as more of a place candidate than a primary pick.
ISSAR D'AIRY - 33/1
Consistent for much of last season with several runner-up efforts in decent handicaps, but he’s now on a mark that demands more than he’s been able to deliver and his seasonal reappearance at Ascot was let down by jumping errors in a strongly-run race. He can travel kindly when things go smoothly, but in a contest of this depth he simply cannot afford mistakes and there’s nothing in his profile to suggest a sudden surge of improvement is imminent. Hard to make a serious case for him in the context of this field.
PADDY POWER GOLD CUP - FINAL THOUGHTS
The Paddy Power Gold Cup rarely strays far from a familiar scrip;: second-season chasers, strong Cheltenham form and horses with just enough experience to be streetwise without being fully exposed. This year fits that pattern neatly. Jagwar brings Festival Plate-winning form and the look of a future graded performer Il Ridoto returns as a rock-solid defending champion just 1lb higher and the Irish challenge is spearheaded by Thecompanysergeant, Coming Up Easy, Conyers Hill and Theatre Native, all with compelling place claims.
However, it’s VINCENZO who appeals most as the horse with the perfect blend of profile, mark and progression for this race. His Greatwood Gold Cup second at Newbury screamed big-pot handicap. The Sam Thomas yard is in flying form. Off 137 with a useful claim, he looks poised to take the next step and land a major Saturday prize.
Jagwar is feared most as the obvious class angle, though top weight in soft ground on his comeback is no gimme, while Il Ridoto looks tailor-made to run another mighty race around his beloved Cheltenham and is a must for any shortlist. Of the bigger prices, Conyers Hill and Hoe Joly Smoke make the most appeal as each-way options if the race sets up for a late closer or a strong-travelling type dropped in trip.
In a deep and fascinating renewal, though, the vote goes to VINCENZO to announce himself as a major 2m4f handicap force, with Jagwar and Il Ridoto the two most likely to chase him up the hill.