SKY BET SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE - PREVIEW & TIPS
1:20 CHELTENHAM
SKY BET SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE (GRADE 1) (GBB RACE)
The traditional curtain-raiser to the Cheltenham Festival, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle unleashes the famous Cheltenham Roar and regularly introduces a future top-class two-mile hurdler to the sport’s biggest stage.
SUPREME - PREVIEW
Formerly run as the Gloucestershire Hurdle before taking on its modern identity in 1978, the Supreme has long been one of the Festival’s defining contests. It is the race that sets the tone for the week and its recent honour roll reflects its quality, with winners such as Altior, Shishkin, Constitution Hill, Marine Nationale and last year’s scorer Kopek Des Bordes all underlining the standard normally required. Willie Mullins has dominated the modern era, but Nicky Henderson has also used this race as a launchpad for some exceptional novices and the combination of history, pressure and pace makes it a uniquely demanding opening test.
This year’s renewal has depth and a strong tactical shape. Sober Glory, Mighty Park, Leader d’Allier and Eachtotheirown are all comfortable forcing the issue, so there is every chance this will develop into a properly run Supreme rather than a steadily controlled Grade 1. That should place the emphasis firmly on rhythm, efficient jumping and the ability to travel within striking distance before finishing strongly up the hill. In that scenario, hold-up horses and those happiest off a searching pace may be favoured over runners who have been able to dominate lesser races.
SUPREME - RUNNER BY RUNNER GUIDE
BARON NOIR - 28/1
He has put together a solid sequence since going hurdling and his latest Kempton success suggested a novice still improving with experience. His bumper form ties in respectably with parts of this field and his attitude looks dependable, but the figures he has posted so far leave him with plenty to find against the principals. He should travel well enough in behind the pace, though the step into Grade 1 company demands a clear career-best.
EACHTOTHEIROWN - 40/1
His Thurles handicap win was visually striking and confirmed that he is at his best when allowed to stride on from the front. The problem here is that he is highly unlikely to get such an uncontested lead and his Royal Bond run suggested this level may stretch him. He is clearly in good shape and arrives as a progressive horse, but the race setup looks much less favourable than last time.
EL CAIROS - 7/1
A very talented novice who has looked capable of operating at this level since his bumper days, including a sound effort in last season’s Champion Bumper. He would probably have won on hurdling debut at Leopardstown but for falling after a mistake at the last and he confirmed his ability at Thurles despite again not being entirely polished at the final flight. The raw engine is obvious and if his jumping stands up under pressure he is a serious player.
KOKTAIL BRUT - 50/1
He has already shown useful graded form and his Grade 2 win earlier in the season gives him a stronger foundation than many outsiders in the field. Even so, his subsequent runs suggest he may lack the tactical sharpness and class of the leading contenders in a race likely to be run at a furious tempo. He should run honestly, but others have more upside.
LEADER D'ALLIER - 11/1
A productive and progressive type who arrived from France with a strong profile and has quickly advanced over hurdles for Willie Mullins. His Punchestown win came in the style of a horse with more to offer and he looks the type who will cope well with a searching test at two miles. He is likely to be ridden prominently and while this is a much deeper race than the maiden he won, his overall profile is that of a genuine Grade 1 contender.
MIGHTY PARK - 4/1
He is the most fascinating horse in the field on potential after a devastating 38-length success on his hurdling debut at Fairyhouse. That performance advertised natural pace, accurate jumping and an abundance of raw talent, but the leap from a maiden hurdle into the Supreme remains a major one. He could easily be exceptional, but with just one run over timber he comes here with less experience than is ideal for a race that usually exposes inexperience.
MYDADDYPADDY - 15/2
He looked a high-class novice in the making when winning his first two hurdle starts with a mixture of fluency and control and his defeat in the Formby does not necessarily diminish that view. The omission of hurdles in the straight that day altered the shape of the race and blunted one of his obvious strengths, which is his jumping rhythm. He remains a strong traveller with a change of gear and this likely stronger pace should suit him much better than the more tactical nature of Aintree. In a race that could set up for a finisher delivered late, he makes plenty of appeal.
OLD PARK STAR - 5/2
He has done everything right since joining Nicky Henderson and his Haydock Grade 2 win was one of the most visually taking novice hurdle performances of the season. He travels powerfully, jumps cleanly and has already proven himself at Cheltenham, which is a significant asset in this race. The only slight concern is that he may find himself a little closer to a strong early pace than ideal and in a Supreme of this depth, even a very smart horse can be vulnerable if the race unfolds against him.
SAGEBOROUGH - 125/1
He won on debut over hurdles but was comfortably outclassed when stepped into graded company at Fairyhouse. He remains lightly raced and may improve in time, but on all known evidence he has plenty to find and this is a very demanding environment in which to try to bridge that gap. Others are far more persuasive.
SOBER GLORY - 12/1
A strong-galloping front-runner who has won six of his seven starts under Rules and arrives here on the back of two emphatic Newbury victories. He is clearly thriving and his ability to maintain pressure from the front gives him a role to play in how this race develops. However, the jump from novice and listed company into a championship-level Grade 1 is substantial and he may be vulnerable to classier closers once the race begins in earnest after the last.
TALK THE TALK - 4/1
The Leopardstown Grade 1 winner brings some of the strongest established hurdle form into the race and he has already shown that a stronger pace can suit him very well. His fall at Leopardstown over Christmas came when shaping like the likely winner and his Dublin Racing Festival success confirmed both his quality and his resilience. He settles, travels and finishes, which makes him a major threat in a Supreme likely to reward tactical patience.
TOO BOSSY FOR US - 40/1
He has useful Flat ability and his Punchestown maiden success was a step forward, while his previous Festival experience in the Triumph is not a negative. Even so, the standard of that latest win falls short of what is normally required to land this race. He is not without ability, but the step into Grade 1 company demands considerably more.
SUPREME - FINAL THOUGHTS
This looks set to be run at a searching gallop, with Sober Glory, Mighty Park, Leader d’Allier and Eachtotheirown all having the profile of horses happiest pressing on. That should ensure the field is under pressure from a long way out and in a Supreme that often proves ideal for a horse capable of settling, jumping cleanly in behind and being delivered late up the hill. Mydaddypaddy appeals most in that regard. His Aintree defeat came in circumstances that did not play to his strengths and the likely pace and shape of this race look much more suitable. He has already shown himself to be a fluent jumper, a strong traveller and a horse with enough class to cope at a high level and there is every chance he is better than the bare result of his latest outing.
Old Park Star is an obvious danger given the authority of his recent wins and his proven Cheltenham form, while Talk The Talk has a very strong Grade 1 profile and should be finishing to good effect if the race unfolds as expected. El Cairos is another with the engine to get involved if producing a cleaner round of jumping than he has at times so far.